Current Events - March 2026

Current Events; March 10, 2026, Rich Dwyer

Topics: 2026 Iran War, Iowa Tax Legislation, Tow Head Island

2026 Iran War

On a quiet Sunday morning, well before most folks around here were starting their day, phones started buzzing with the kind of alerts you hope never to see: coordinated U.S.–Israeli strikes inside Iran, shipping slowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil futures jumping before breakfast. For those who’ve lived through the oil shocks of the 70’s or watched Desert Storm unfold on the evening news. It felt familiar in all the wrong ways. But this wasn’t a history lesson – it was breaking news, and it was clear right away that the ripple effects would reach places like Muscatine, the shock wasn’t a page from history; it was the front page, again.

Within days, tankers hesitated at the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil, and analysts warned that even a small reduction in supply can swing prices hard—classic laws of scarcity playing out in real time. What will the impact be? When tankers pause, prices will increase for diesel, jet fuel, and natural gas. Even a temporary slowdown increases prices and stoke inflation pressure, squeezing household budgets and business margins alike.

The 2026 Iran War began primarily because the United States and Israel launched a large-scale, pre-emptive strike campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026. These coordinated strikes targeted Iran's ballistic missile launchers, strategic military infrastructure, and high-level command centers. The objective of the campaign was to significantly degrade Iran’s missile capabilities before Iran could expand attacks against Israel or U.S. forces in the region. By striking early, U.S. and Israeli planners sought to prevent Iran from overwhelming missile defense systems by destroying launch capacity at the outset.Iran and its allied militias had increased regional attacks in the months prior, raising concerns among U.S. and Israeli leadership that Iran was escalating its regional posture. These developments contributed to the decision to initiate the pre-emptive strike campaign.The initial strikes also affected Iran’s political leadership structure, targeting institutions involved in senior-level decision-making. The situation intensified following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the escalating conflict, driving further instability and ensuring rapid escalation once Iran retaliated.Overall, the war began because the United States and Israel sought to neutralize Iran’s missile program and weaken its leadership in response to mounting regional threats, leading to broad and rapid regional escalation. The attacks were projected to last four or five weeks but could last longer, stated President Trump a week ago. Trump stated that Iran had been pursuing a nuclear weapon, and that the regime was “rapidly and dramatically” building a conventional weapons program, which was to shield the nuclear program. Trump outlined four goals for the operation,

1. Destroy Iran’s missile capabilities.

2. Annihilate its Navy.

3. Prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons. 

4. Stop Iran from arming, funding and directing terrorist groups outside its borders.

Persian Gulf nations targeted by Iran have, so far, managed to limit the damage by deploying sophisticated US made air defenses against hundreds of drones and missiles that have rained on their cities. With costly interceptors and radar, all integrated with U.S. military, the oil-rich Gulf Arab states have fielded some of the most advanced air defenses in the world, despite their small populations and militaries. A key variable in this war, is weather these monarchies start running out of interceptors before the Iranian regime runs out of projectiles. Interceptor shortage will be apparent in a short amount of time.

Iran targeted Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Bahrain continuing their counterattacks using mobile launchers to carry out missile strikes to “inflict maximum damage across the region”.

President Trump discussed his reason for the initial strikes, saying he believed Iran was going to attack first. A top Pentagon official told lawmakers that U.S. military goals in Iran included eliminating the country’s missile and drone program, drawing a distinction between the Trump administration’s aims and those of Israel, which sought to kill Iran’s supreme leader.

Seven US service members have been killed, with 2 from Iowa and 140 wounded thus far; and more than 700 Iranians have been killed in the attacks. What does this mean here at home?

For families, it can look like a pricier fill-up and airfare.

For manufacturers, it’s fuel surcharges, higher input costs, and tighter credit if inflation sticks.

For farmers and logistics operators, diesel swings hit hardest, fertilizer and insurance premiums creep up. None of this is destiny—duration and damage to infrastructure will occur—but prudence says plan for a few rough quarters while hoping for a faster diplomatic off‑ramp.

Many in this room have lived through shocks that once felt endless. They ended. What endured were the choices communities made—steady hands on budgets, attention to neighbors who felt the squeeze first, and patience while statesmen did the slow work of de‑escalation.

This moment asks the same of us: clear eyes, calm hearts, and practical steps—until tankers move freely and headlines cool. Time will tell how the new Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son will be dealing with, I’m guessing very little changes will occur.

Iowa Tax Legislation

First and foremost, I am not a tax expert and did this topic to learn more about our tax systems. It seems that no issue looms larger at the Iowa capital than property taxes. Legislative leaders from both chambers have repeatedly stated that 2026 represents a “make-or-break” opportunity to overhaul a tax system that many consider outdated, overly complex, and burdensome for homeowners and local governments alike. Senate Majority Leader Mike Klimesh has emphasized a “holistic” reset of the system, asserting that for 40 years lawmakers have placed “Band-Aids” on a structure in need of deeper structural repairs. Governor Reynolds has stated that over the last two years, Iowans’ property taxes have gone up by an average of more than 10% and are outpacing inflation, salaries, and the state’s population growth.

Let’s set a current Tax base line, let’s start with individual income tax which will be a flat 3.8% rate starting this year. No changes to corporate tax rates in 2026. The Local Option Sales tax (LOST) adopted locally at 1% with several cities adding or expanding LOST in 2026 mainly to diversify revenues (Iowa City & North Liberty for example (remember Muscatine voted in 2019 to use the LOST specifically to complete the sewar separation project at 80% and Streets at 20% through June of 2034.) Property tax system today uses an assessment rollback mechanism that taxes a set share of residential value statewide (44.54% in 2025-26 cycle) limiting growth and smoothing spikes. Cities and counties face guardrails on revenue growth.

1. Governor Reynolds’ 2026 Property‑Tax Proposal

Key Elements:Caps local government property‑tax revenue growth at 2% per year, plus new construction; schools and debt service excluded.

·         Moves property assessments from a 2‑year to 3‑year cycle.

·         Creates a $10M Local Consolidation Fund to help cities/counties combine services.

·         Senior property‑tax freeze for homeowners 65+ with homes valued ≤ $350,000.

·         20‑year limit on new TIF districts with transparency requirements.

·         Projected statewide savings: $3B over six years.

Pluses:Predictable tax growth through 2% cap.

·         Reduced valuation volatility with 3‑year cycle.

·         Targeted senior‑focused relief.

·         Encourages intergovernmental efficiencies.

Minuses:Strict cap may strain local service budgets.

·         Relief uneven across demographics.

·         Longer assessment cycle may delay market corrections.

2. Iowa Senate GOP Proposal (SSB 3001)

Key Elements:Caps city and county revenue growth at 2–5% tied to inflation.

·         Eliminates rollback; introduces 50% homestead taxable‑value discount.

·         Eliminates property taxes for 60+ mortgage‑clear homeowners.

·         Allows LOST increases up to 1.5% with voter approval.

·         Indexes state gas tax to inflation.

·         Reduces school levies and shifts some funding to the state.

Pluses:Simplifies tax structure for homeowners.

·         Greater flexibility via inflation‑indexed cap.

·         Significant senior relief.

·         Improved long‑term transportation funding.

Minuses:Rollback removal may shift burden to non‑homestead and commercial properties.

·         Senior exemption cliff effects.

·         Political sensitivity around gas‑tax indexing and LOST expansions.

·         Local budgets are more dependent on voter‑approved increases.

3. Iowa House GOP Proposal (HSB 596)

Key Elements:2% revenue cap similar to Governor’s plan.

·         Retains rollback system.

·         $25,000 taxable‑value exemption for residential property (not for school levies).

·         Enhanced taxpayer‑notification transparency.

Pluses:Low administrative burden; familiar system.

·         Broad, simple homeowner relief.

·         Improved transparency and taxpayer comprehension.

Minuses:2% cap may pressure services.

·         Rollback complexity remains.

·         Exemption limited because it excludes school levies.

Takeaways:

·        Governor’s plan – Lean, predictable, cost-containment model; tight cap; targeted senior help; minimal structure change.

·        Senate GOP Plan – Largest structural change, biggest senior benefits, more flexibility for local governments, but creates redistribution effects across property classes.

·        House GOP Plan – Most incremental, easiest to implement, focuses on transparency and modest relief without major overhaul.

·        All three plans restrict TIF districts, which are the primary mechanism cities use to attract and retain businesses like the Kraft Heinz $60M expansion. A 20 year TIF limit changes the calculations for future deals.

The major concern I have is how each of these financially impact Muscatine long term.

Towhead Island

You may have heard or read about the Community Foundation of Greater Muscatine’s recent purchase of Towhead Island. I thought I would give some background on the Island and how this came about and how it will be utilized. If you were to stand next to the Watermelon on the river front and look down river, you’ll see the island, actually it’s three islands. Keep in mind this is the largest conservation gift in the region’s history, and the community gets to decide what it becomes.

First, can an Island be purchased and how does it belong to Iowa and not Illinois? Records have shown that in 1837 (189 years ago), a survey was completed by the U.S. Surveyor General at Dubuque placing the Island location in the middle of the Mississippi in township 76N, Range 2W, section 2 and section 11 of the 5^th Meridian. Township, Range, Section, and Meridian are terms from the Public Land Survey System (PLSS) — a system used in the United States in the 1800s to identify and describe land parcels in a consistent, grid-based way (think townships). At that time Muscatine was called Bloomington.

In 1850, after Iowa was admitted into the Union, the 31st congress approved the “Swamp Land Act” – An act to enable the State of Arkansas and other states to reclaim the “Swamp Lands” within their limits. Thus, the Act enabled the state of Iowa to claim the swamp lands as their territory. In 1851, the cities’ name changed to Muscatine and the historical survey from 1852 clearly places the island within the state of Iowa limits. 

It is believed “Towhead Island” received its name from loggers who would tie up their tows on the island. In 1853 the State of Iowa General Assembly grants the swamp lands to the counties to manage. Couple years later, Abraham Smally purchased the island from Muscatine County for $105.05 and became the first owner of Towhead Island. In 1859 President Buchanan formally conveys the patent of the island lands in section 2 to the state of Iowa. Section 11 was left out of the original document by accident. Until 1866, when President Andrew Johnson conveys the patent of the island lands in section 11 to the state of Iowa.

In 1887, Smalley’s decided to sell the island.  To date nine different owners owned the island. In 2026, thanks to a gift from Joe W. and Betty L. Rauch, Towhead Island was donated to the community Foundation of Greater Muscatine to be permanently owned and preserved as a place of natural beauty, biodiversity, outdoor education, and community engagements for generations. The island today is still used to tie barges and does generate some revenue to help cover cost going forward. The status of the island

-         Met with Sea Scouts and they’re taking a lead role with a pre-clean up island visit, island cleanup day, and program ideation for the future.  

o   Sea Scouts is a co-ed group for 14–21-year-olds; all current Sea Scouts members are also Scouts members (either Boy Scouts or Girl Scouts).

o   Sea Scouts is a member of the Boys Scouts of America umbrella organization, which means Sea Scouts leaders and Boy/Girl Scouts leaders attend the same regional council meetings.

o   Mike Hartman is the Sea Scouts leader, and recently met with the Scouts Council and will let other troop leaders know about the potential to engage in Towhead Island conversations, Mike will serve as the liaison for the regional group—with others getting involved in programming / opportunities as able.

o   Mike, along with scout student leaders, will also attend a Strategic Insights Workshop on March 11.

What if Muscatine had an outdoor education center that no other Mississippi River town could match? What would that do for our ability to attract families and talent? This is a 129-acre blank canvas. I’m curious on what ideas this group has for Towhead Island.